Previously the evidence for psi was drawn from exploratory studies that do not adhere to the standards that are replicable across different laboratories. It is possible now to summarise the findings of empirical evidence drawn from confirmatory studies that enable one to draw firm conclusions. The existence of this solid data-base of empirical evidence in Parapsychology was only made possible by the formation of a register of studies at the Koestler Parapsychology Unit Registry. The Registry is managed by Professor Caroline Watt, Koestler Chair of Parapsychology, University of Edinburgh, with support from James E Kennedy.
In three books published in 1980, 2000 and 2020 I presented the case that psi has never been reliably demonstrated inside the scientific laboratory. The non-existence of laboratory psi looks ever more certain from the following analysis of recent confirmatory research in Parapsychology.
The Table reproduces the descriptions of 43 confirmatory studies registered to date (14 September 2022). For these 43 confirmatory studies, there are 27 reports of findings to the present date. For these 27 studies, 6 are listed as positively confirming the original exploratory findings (including one with only partial confirmation). All five of the fully confirmatory studies reporting positive findings are from a single leading investigator, Patrizio Tressoldi, of Università di Padova, Italy.
Of the remaining 21 studies, 17 are associated with a reported disconfirmation, one was halted before completion, one failed to recruit a sufficient N and one presented an inconclusive report. Removing these last 3 studies provides 5 confirmations, one partial confirmation and 19 disconfirmations from a total of 27 conclusive/completed studies for an overall confirmation rate of 22.2% and a disconfirmation rate of 77.8%.
With all five of the fully confirmatory studies from a single investigator, the Fisher Exact test value is 0.0079 (p<.01).
I discuss possible explanations for the remarkable association between confirmation of psi and one investigator in another post.
INVESTIGATOR | CONFIRMATION | DISCONFIRMATION | TOTALS |
TRESSOLDI | 5 | 4 | 9 |
OTHERS | 1(partial) | 17 | 18 |
TOTALS | 6 | 21 | 27 |
with published results to 14/09/22
With the exception of the group of five studies conducted by a single investigator, the findings confirm the hypothesis presented in all three of my books, most recently, Psychology and the Paranormal. Exploring Anomalous Experience, that psi is not amenable to controlled studies inside the laboratory.
CONCLUSIONS
The results of the best scientific research of preregistered confirmatory studies from the world’s leading investigators suggest that there is no reliable evidence for the existence of laboratory psi.
These null findings confirm the author’s conclusions in three books on psychical phenomena published in 1980, 2000 and 2020 (see References).
If psi exists at all, it exists as a spontaneous experience that cannot be controlled by the human will.
REFERENCES
Marks, D F and Kammann, R (1980) The Psychology of the Psychic. New York: Prometheus Books.
Marks D F (2000) The Psychology of the Psychic (2nd ed.). New York: Prometheus Books.
Marks D F (2020) Psychology and the Paranormal. Exploring Anomalous Experience. London: Sage Publishing.
TABLE OF CONFIRMATORY AND DISCONFIRMATORY STUDIES
In column 6, the outcome of each study with reported findings is summarized as ‘CON’ (confirmation), ‘DISCON’ (disconfirmation), or otherwise where the study was not completed or ambiguous or unavailable.
Number for this analysis | Study Title (C) = Confirmatory (E) = Exploratory | Lead Author | Date Submitted to Registry | Study ID | Link to Registered Information |
43 | The Effects of Imagery-Cultivation on Phenomenological and Paranormal Experience (C) | Lance Storm | 18th May 2022 | 1069 | KPU Registry 1069 |
42 | Pre-registered field test of an ‘Enchantment—Psi’ loop (C) | Rense Lange & James Houran | 12th April 2022 | 1068 | KPU Registry 1068 |
41 | Retrocausal cueing: Investigating retrocausal influences in cued action (C) | Jordan Wehrman | 17th Sept 2021 | 1063 | KPU Registry 1063 |
40 | A telephone telepathy study: Does genetic relatedness influence psychic abilities? (C) | Helané Wahbeh | 20th July 2022 (Date revised, 4) 14th March 2022 (Date revised, 3) 23rd Feb 2022 (Date revised, 2) 28th July 2021 | 1062 | KPU Registry 1062_4 KPU Registry 1062_3 KPU Registry 1062_2 KPU Registry 1062 |
39 | Attitudes and Beliefs as Predictors of Psi Effects in a Pseudo-Gambling Task (C) | Lance Storm | 3rd June 2022 | 1061 | KPU Registry 1061 |
38 | Retroactive priming of a compound remote associates task using pre-selected participants (C) | David Vernon & Malcolm Schofield | 17th Feb 2021 | 1060 | KPU Registry 1060 |
37 | Darkness, Light and Numinosity in Remote Viewing Success (C) | Stanley Krippner & David Saunders | 27th Jan 2021 | 1059 | KPU Registry 1059 |
36 | The Institute of Noetic Science Discovery Lab: A Systematic Investigation of the relationship between Interconnectedness, Extended Human Capacities, and Well-being. (C) | Helané Wahbeh | 31st Aug 2020 | 1057 | KPU Registry 1057 |
35 | Three confirmatory analyses of precognition and micro-PK data gathered using online methods (C) | Julia Mossbridge | 29th April 2020 | 1056 | KPU Registry 1056 |
34 | Associations among Experience, Confidence, Transliminality and Ability to Locate and Describe Targets in Experienced Remote Viewers (C) | Jennifer Lyke | 27th Sept 2019 | 1055 | KPU Registry 1055 |
33 | PsyPhotos (C) | Patrizio Tressoldi & Luciano Pederzoli | 3rd Oct 2019 | 1054 | KPU Registry 1054 |
32 | Reproductive Hormonal Status as a Predictor of Precognition: Pregnancy Experiment; A confirmatory experiment (C) | Julia Mossbridge | 16th Jan 2020 (date revised) 27th Sept 2019 | 1053 | KPU_Registry_1053_2 KPU Registry 1053 |
31 | Experimenter Effect and Replication in Psi Research: Round III of a Global Initiative (C) | Marilyn Schlitz, Arnaud Delorme & Daryl Bem | 13th Feb 2019 | 1051 | KPU Registry 1051 Published Results (version 2, March 2021) DISCON |
30 | Mind-matter interaction at distance on a standalone device (C) | Patrizio Tressoldi & Luciano Pederzoli | 21st Feb 2019 | 1049 | KPU Registry 1049 Published Results DISCON |
29 | Telephone telepathy, an Italian independent exact replication (C) | Patrizio Tressoldi & Rupert Sheldrake | 3rd Nov 2018 | 1048 | KPU Registry 1048 |
28 | An implicit and explicit assessment of morphic resonance theory using Chinese characters (C) | David Vernon | 23rd May 2018 | 1046 | KPU Registry 1046 Study Results Summary KPU 1046 data KPU 1046 data definition DISCON |
27 | Facial Recognition Replication Experiment (C) | Sharon Su & Stephen Baumgart | 26th Feb 2019 (date revised) 26th Jun 2018 (date revised) 19th May 2018 | 1045 | KPU Registry 1045_3 KPU Registry 1045_2 KPU Registry 1045 |
26 | Reproductive Hormonal Status as a Predictor of Precognition: A Confirmatory Experiment (C) | Julia Mossbridge | 16th Feb 2018 | 1043 | KPU Registry 1043 Study Results Summary DISCON |
25 | Individual difference correlates of lottery success (C) | Marco Zdrenka | 22nd Sept 2017 | 1038 | KPU Registry 1038 Study Results INSUFFICIENT N |
24 | Precognitive priming of compound remote associates: Using an implicit creative insight task to elicit precognition (C) | David Vernon | 18th Sept 2017 | 1037 | KPU Registry 1037 Study Results Summary KPU 1037 data KPU 1037 data definition DISCON |
23 | Measuring precognitive effects using a fast implicit and fast explicit task (C) | David Vernon | 28th Jun 2017 | 1036 | KPU Registry 1036 Study Results Summary KPU 1036 data KPU 1036 data definition DISCON |
22 | The ACES Study (Anomalous Cognition with Electromagnetic Shielding) (C) | Randy Fauver & Glenn Hartelius | 6th Mar 2017 | 1029 | KPU Registry 1029 |
21 | Retroactive facilitation of recall and music (C) | Julia Mossbridge | 11th Nov 2016 | 1027 | KPU Registry 1027 Study Results Summary DISCON |
20 | A test of reward contingent precall (C) | David Vernon | 19th Oct 2016 | 1026 | KPU Registry 1026 Study Results Summary KPU 1026 data KPU 1026 data definition PARTIAL CON |
19 | Testing precall using emotive images and participants with high levels of belief in psi (C) | David Vernon | 22nd Sept 2016 | 1025 | KPU Registry 1025 Study Results Summary KPU 1025 data KPU 1025 data definition DISCON |
18 | A prospective meta-analysis of pre-registered ganzfeld ESP studies (C) | Caroline Watt | 22nd Nov 2017 (date revised) | 1024 | KPU Registry 1024 List of included studies |
17 | Examining possible effects of precall using arousing images in a lab based task (C) | David Vernon | 7th Jan 2016 | 1021 | KPU Registry 1021 Study Results Summary STUDY HALTED |
16 | Exploring precall using arousing images and utilising a memory practice task on-line (C) | David Vernon | 21st Dec 2015 | 1019 | KPU Registry 1019 Study Results Summary KPU 1019 data KPU 1019 data definition DISCON |
15 | Single-trial confirmatory presentiment experiment (C) | Julia Mossbridge | 16th Dec 2015 | 1018 | KPU Registry 1018 Study Results Summary DISCON |
14 | Experimenter effect and replication in psi research: Round II of a global initiative (C) | Marilyn Schlitz, Arnaud Delorme & Daryl Bem | 24th Aug 2015 | 1016 | KPU_Registry_1016 Published Results DISCON |
13 | Remote meditation support – a multimodal distant intention experiment (C) | Stefan Schmidt, Han-Gue Jo, Marc Wittman & Thilo Hinterberger | 14th Jul 2016 (date revised) | 1015 | KPU_Registry_1015 Publication Abstract DISCON |
12 | Can our mind emit light? A confirmatory experiment of mental interaction at distance on a photomultiplier (C) | Patrizio Tressoldi & John Kruth | 6th Jul 2015 | 1013 | KPU Registry 1013 Errata Published Results DISCON |
11* | Biophotons as physical correlates of mental interaction at distance: a new confirmatory study (C) | Patrizio Tressoldi & John Kruth | 29th Apr 2015 | 1012 | KPU Registry 1012 Published Results CON |
10* | CardioAlert: A portable assistant for the choice between negative or positive random events (C) | Patrizio Tressoldi | 17th Mar 2015 | 1011 | KPU_Registry_1011 Published Results CON |
9* | Biophotons as physical correlates of mental interaction at distance: a confirmatory study (C) | Patrizio Tressoldi & John Kruth | 8th Oct 2014 | 1010 | KPU_Registry_1010 Published Results DISCON |
8* | Mind-matter interaction at distance on a random events generator (REG): a confirmatory study (C) | Patrizio Tressoldi | 15th May 2014 | 1009 | KPU_Registry_1009 Published Results CON |
7* | Brain-to-brain (mind-to-mind) interaction at distance: a proof of concept of mental telecommunication (C) | Patrizio Tressoldi | 23rd Apr 2014 | 1008 | KPU_Registry_1008 Published Results CON |
6 | Experimenter effect and replication in psi research (C) | Marilyn Schlitz, Arnaud Delorme & Daryl Bem | 19th Nov 2013 | 1007 | KPU_Registry_1007 Published Results DISCON |
5 | Evaluation of alterations of consciousness and the Model of Pragmatic Information in a ganzfeld protocol (C) | Etzel Cardeña | 23rd Aug 2013 | 1006 | KPU_Registry_1006 Published Results SEE:https://www.parapsychologypress.org/jparticle/jp-84-1-66-84. |
4 | Does characteristic alpha EEG activity predict upcoming sensory events? (C) | Julia Mossbridge | 7th May 2013 | 1004 | KPU_Registry_1004 Study Results Summary UNCLEAR OUTCOME |
3 | Precognitive Dreaming: Sleep Lab Study (C) | Caroline Watt | 25th Apr 2013 | 1003 | KPU_Registry_1003 Published Results DISCON |
2* | Pupil dilation prediction of random negative events. Can they be avoided? (C) | Patrizio Tressoldi | 1st Feb 2013 | 1002 | KPU_Registry_1002 Published Results CON |
1 | Pupil dilation accuracy in the prediction of random events (C) | Patrizio Tressoldi | 26th Nov 2012 | 1001 | KPU_Registry_1001 Published Results (1 of 2) Published Results (2 of 2) DISCON |
The broken link for study 1006 should point here:
https://www.parapsychologypress.org/jparticle/jp-84-1-66-84