The Non-existence of Laboratory Psi Looks Ever More Certain from Recent Confirmatory Research in Parapsychology

Previously the evidence for psi was drawn from exploratory studies that do not adhere to the standards that are replicable across different laboratories. It is possible now to summarise the findings of empirical evidence drawn from confirmatory studies that enable one to draw firm conclusions. The existence of this solid data-base of empirical evidence in Parapsychology was only made possible by the formation of a register of studies at the Koestler Parapsychology Unit Registry. The Registry is managed by Professor Caroline Watt, Koestler Chair of Parapsychology, University of Edinburgh, with support from James E Kennedy.

In three books published in 1980, 2000 and 2020 I presented the case that psi has never been reliably demonstrated inside the scientific laboratory. The non-existence of laboratory psi looks ever more certain from the following analysis of recent confirmatory research in Parapsychology.

The Table reproduces the descriptions of 43 confirmatory studies registered to date (14 September 2022). For these 43 confirmatory studies, there are 27 reports of findings to the present date. For these 27 studies, 6 are listed as positively confirming the original exploratory findings (including one with only partial confirmation). All five of the fully confirmatory studies reporting positive findings are from a single leading investigator, Patrizio Tressoldi, of Università di Padova, Italy.

Of the remaining 21 studies, 17 are associated with a reported disconfirmation,  one was halted before completion, one failed to recruit a sufficient N and one presented an inconclusive report. Removing these last 3 studies provides 5 confirmations, one partial confirmation and 19 disconfirmations from a total of 27 conclusive/completed studies for an overall confirmation rate of 22.2% and a disconfirmation rate of 77.8%.

With all five of the fully confirmatory studies from a single investigator, the Fisher Exact test value is 0.0079 (p<.01).

I discuss possible explanations for the remarkable association between confirmation of psi and one investigator in another post.

INVESTIGATOR	CONFIRMATION	DISCONFIRMATION	TOTALS
TRESSOLDI	5	4	9
OTHERS	1(partial)	17	18
TOTALS	6	21	27

With the exception of the group of five studies conducted by a single investigator, the findings confirm the hypothesis presented in all three of my books, most recently, Psychology and the Paranormal. Exploring Anomalous Experience, that psi is not amenable to controlled studies inside the laboratory.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of the best scientific research of preregistered confirmatory studies from the world’s leading investigators suggest that there is no reliable evidence for the existence of laboratory psi.

These null findings confirm the author’s conclusions in three books on psychical phenomena published in 1980, 2000 and 2020 (see References).

If psi exists at all, it exists as a spontaneous experience that cannot be controlled by the human will.

REFERENCES

Marks, D F and Kammann, R (1980) The Psychology of the Psychic. New York: Prometheus Books.

Marks D F (2000) The Psychology of the Psychic (2nd ed.). New York: Prometheus Books.

Marks D F (2020) Psychology and the Paranormal. Exploring Anomalous Experience. London: Sage Publishing.

TABLE OF CONFIRMATORY AND DISCONFIRMATORY STUDIES

In column 6, the outcome of each study with reported findings is summarized as ‘CON’ (confirmation), ‘DISCON’ (disconfirmation), or otherwise where the study was not completed or ambiguous or unavailable.

Number for this analysis	Study Title (C) = Confirmatory (E) = Exploratory	Lead Author	Date Submitted to Registry	Study ID	Link to Registered Information
43	The Effects of Imagery-Cultivation on Phenomenological and Paranormal Experience (C)	Lance Storm	18th May 2022	1069	KPU Registry 1069
42	Pre-registered field test of an ‘Enchantment—Psi’ loop (C)	Rense Lange & James Houran	12th April 2022	1068	KPU Registry 1068
41	Retrocausal cueing: Investigating retrocausal influences in cued action (C)	Jordan Wehrman	17th Sept 2021	1063	KPU Registry 1063
40	A telephone telepathy study: Does genetic relatedness influence psychic abilities? (C)	Helané Wahbeh	20th July 2022 (Date revised, 4) 14th March 2022 (Date revised, 3) 23rd Feb 2022 (Date revised, 2) 28th July 2021	1062	KPU Registry 1062_4 KPU Registry 1062_3 KPU Registry 1062_2 KPU Registry 1062
39	Attitudes and Beliefs as Predictors of Psi Effects in a Pseudo-Gambling Task (C)	Lance Storm	3rd June 2022	1061	KPU Registry 1061
38	Retroactive priming of a compound remote associates task using pre-selected participants (C)	David Vernon & Malcolm Schofield	17th Feb 2021	1060	KPU Registry 1060
37	Darkness, Light and Numinosity in Remote Viewing Success (C)	Stanley Krippner & David Saunders	27th Jan 2021	1059	KPU Registry 1059
36	The Institute of Noetic Science Discovery Lab: A Systematic Investigation of the relationship between Interconnectedness, Extended Human Capacities, and Well-being. (C)	Helané Wahbeh	31st Aug 2020	1057	KPU Registry 1057
35	Three confirmatory analyses of precognition and micro-PK data gathered using online methods (C)	Julia Mossbridge	29th April 2020	1056	KPU Registry 1056
34	Associations among Experience, Confidence, Transliminality and Ability to Locate and Describe Targets in Experienced Remote Viewers (C)	Jennifer Lyke	27th Sept 2019	1055	KPU Registry 1055
33	PsyPhotos (C)	Patrizio Tressoldi & Luciano Pederzoli	3rd Oct 2019	1054	KPU Registry 1054
32	Reproductive Hormonal Status as a Predictor of Precognition: Pregnancy Experiment; A confirmatory experiment (C)	Julia Mossbridge	16th Jan 2020 (date revised)   27th Sept 2019	1053	KPU_Registry_1053_2   KPU Registry 1053
31	Experimenter Effect and Replication in Psi Research: Round III of a Global Initiative (C)	Marilyn Schlitz, Arnaud Delorme & Daryl Bem	13th Feb 2019	1051	KPU Registry 1051 Published Results (version 2, March 2021) DISCON
30	Mind-matter interaction at distance on a standalone device (C)	Patrizio Tressoldi & Luciano Pederzoli	21st Feb 2019	1049	KPU Registry 1049   Published Results DISCON
29	Telephone telepathy, an Italian independent exact replication (C)	Patrizio Tressoldi & Rupert Sheldrake	3rd Nov 2018	1048	KPU Registry 1048
28	An implicit and explicit assessment of morphic resonance theory using Chinese characters (C)	David Vernon	23rd May 2018	1046	KPU Registry 1046 Study Results Summary KPU 1046 data KPU 1046 data definition DISCON
27	Facial Recognition Replication Experiment (C)	Sharon Su & Stephen Baumgart	26th Feb 2019 (date revised) 26th Jun 2018 (date revised) 19th May 2018	1045	KPU Registry 1045_3 KPU Registry 1045_2 KPU Registry 1045
26	Reproductive Hormonal Status as a Predictor of Precognition: A Confirmatory Experiment (C)	Julia Mossbridge	16th Feb 2018	1043	KPU Registry 1043 Study Results Summary DISCON
25	Individual difference correlates of lottery success (C)	Marco Zdrenka	22nd Sept 2017	1038	KPU Registry 1038 Study Results INSUFFICIENT N
24	Precognitive priming of compound remote associates: Using an implicit creative insight task to elicit precognition (C)	David Vernon	18th Sept 2017	1037	KPU Registry 1037 Study Results Summary KPU 1037 data KPU 1037 data definition DISCON
23	Measuring precognitive effects using a fast implicit and fast explicit task (C)	David Vernon	28th Jun 2017	1036	KPU Registry 1036 Study Results Summary KPU 1036 data KPU 1036 data definition DISCON
22	The ACES Study (Anomalous Cognition with Electromagnetic Shielding) (C)	Randy Fauver & Glenn Hartelius	6th Mar 2017	1029	KPU Registry 1029
21	Retroactive facilitation of recall and music (C)	Julia Mossbridge	11th Nov 2016	1027	KPU Registry 1027 Study Results Summary DISCON
20	A test of reward contingent precall (C)	David Vernon	19th Oct 2016	1026	KPU Registry 1026 Study Results Summary KPU 1026 data KPU 1026 data definition PARTIAL CON
19	Testing precall using emotive images and participants with high levels of belief in psi (C)	David Vernon	22nd Sept 2016	1025	KPU Registry 1025 Study Results Summary KPU 1025 data KPU 1025 data definition DISCON
18	A prospective meta-analysis of pre-registered ganzfeld ESP studies (C)	Caroline Watt	22nd Nov 2017 (date revised)	1024	KPU Registry 1024 List of included studies
17	Examining possible effects of precall using arousing images in a lab based task (C)	David Vernon	7th Jan 2016	1021	KPU Registry 1021 Study Results Summary STUDY HALTED
16	Exploring precall using arousing images and utilising a memory practice task on-line (C)	David Vernon	21st Dec 2015	1019	KPU Registry 1019 Study Results Summary KPU 1019 data KPU 1019 data definition DISCON
15	Single-trial confirmatory presentiment experiment (C)	Julia Mossbridge	16th Dec 2015	1018	KPU Registry 1018 Study Results Summary DISCON
14	Experimenter effect and replication in psi research: Round II of a global initiative (C)	Marilyn Schlitz, Arnaud Delorme & Daryl Bem	24th Aug 2015	1016	KPU_Registry_1016 Published Results DISCON
13	Remote meditation support – a multimodal distant intention experiment (C)	Stefan Schmidt, Han-Gue Jo, Marc Wittman & Thilo Hinterberger	14th Jul 2016 (date revised)	1015	KPU_Registry_1015 Publication Abstract DISCON
12	Can our mind emit light? A confirmatory experiment of mental interaction at distance on a photomultiplier (C)	Patrizio Tressoldi & John Kruth	6th Jul 2015	1013	KPU Registry 1013 Errata Published Results DISCON
11*	Biophotons as physical correlates of mental interaction at distance: a new confirmatory study (C)	Patrizio Tressoldi & John Kruth	29th Apr 2015	1012	KPU Registry 1012 Published Results CON
10*	CardioAlert: A portable assistant for the choice between negative or positive random events (C)	Patrizio Tressoldi	17th Mar 2015	1011	KPU_Registry_1011 Published Results CON
9*	Biophotons as physical correlates of mental interaction at distance: a confirmatory study (C)	Patrizio Tressoldi & John Kruth	8th Oct 2014	1010	KPU_Registry_1010 Published Results DISCON
8*	Mind-matter interaction at distance on a random events generator (REG): a confirmatory study (C)	Patrizio Tressoldi	15th May 2014	1009	KPU_Registry_1009 Published Results CON
7*	Brain-to-brain (mind-to-mind) interaction at distance: a proof of concept of mental telecommunication (C)	Patrizio Tressoldi	23rd Apr 2014	1008	KPU_Registry_1008 Published Results CON
6	Experimenter effect and replication in psi research (C)	Marilyn Schlitz, Arnaud Delorme & Daryl Bem	19th Nov 2013	1007	KPU_Registry_1007 Published Results DISCON
5	Evaluation of alterations of consciousness and the Model of Pragmatic Information in a ganzfeld protocol (C)	Etzel Cardeña	23rd Aug 2013	1006	KPU_Registry_1006 Published Results SEE:https://www.parapsychologypress.org/jparticle/jp-84-1-66-84.
4	Does characteristic alpha EEG activity predict upcoming sensory events? (C)	Julia Mossbridge	7th May 2013	1004	KPU_Registry_1004 Study Results Summary UNCLEAR OUTCOME
3	Precognitive Dreaming: Sleep Lab Study (C)	Caroline Watt	25th Apr 2013	1003	KPU_Registry_1003 Published Results DISCON
2*	Pupil dilation prediction of random negative events. Can they be avoided? (C)	Patrizio Tressoldi	1st Feb 2013	1002	KPU_Registry_1002 Published Results CON
1	Pupil dilation accuracy in the prediction of random events (C)	Patrizio Tressoldi	26th Nov 2012	1001	KPU_Registry_1001 Published Results (1 of 2) Published Results (2 of 2) DISCON